Microsoft appears to be learning the value of an open beta program in selling Windows. By opening the Windows 7 beta program as widely as it has, Microsoft has given many customers the opportunity to work with Windows 7 before its official release. This has very likely uncovered bugs that might not have been found until after the official launch, when their discovery might have impacted early sales (as happened with Vista). In addition, the time spent with the beta has given users confidence in Windows 7’s security, performance, and stability… enough that they’re willing to pre-order the release version based solely on experience with the beta. Perhaps not surprisingly, the adoption rate for Windows 7 already looks to be much greater than that for Vista.
According to Network World, Microsoft and other online retailers reported strong sales of Windows 7 upgrade licenses during the first hours of pre-order availability. The BBC reports huge sales in the U.K., with Windows 7 per-orders during the first 8 hours of availability exceeding those for the entire 17-week pre-order period for Windows Vista. In Japan, the Windows 7 pre-order inventory is already sold out. IDC analysts predict that 40 million copies of Windows 7 will be sold by the end of 2009, and 177 million copies of Windows 7 will be in place by the end of 2010. They also estimate that the products and services surrounding Windows 7 will generate $320 billion in revenue.
Savio Rodrigues, a self-styled “open source aficionado within the traditional software world” seems to be impressed with Microsoft’s early Windows 7 results. He may have a point when he says that “in today’s open source world, virtually no PC user would preorder Windows 7 based on press views alone. Users today expect to try the software before deciding to part with their money.” This is doubly true given the weak economy. If the current order volume is any indication, Windows 7 adoption rates will be among the highest in the history of Microsoft’s operating system.
Apple is fortunate in that it doesn’t generally have to contend with these “adoption” issues. Mac owners tend to trust Apple and its products, giving Apple the benefit of the doubt when new releases of the Mac OS cause “blue screens of death“, lead to printers that stop working, generate a series of problems described as “the worst OS upgrade experience I’ve ever had“, or issues so frustrating that people are able to write an entire blog about how “lame” their Mac has been since the upgrade.
Were issues like those commonplace among early Leopard adopters? It’s hard to say for sure. Could Apple have avoided them by running a public beta program similar to the Windows 7 beta? Probably. (Apple does beta test its software, but this is usually a closed program limited primarily to developers who pay for advance access to the products.) Will it ever happen? Not as long as customers continue to open their wallets for each new product, and Apple continues to practice “extreme secrecy” surrounding its new products. After all, it’s hard to “wow” a crowd about your new OS release if everyone’s already been using it for 2-3 months in beta…